Sunset and Fate of Java

Sun Microsystem (SUNW) is down in many sense of the word. The billion dollar question is whether it can come back again.

Sun’s strength was in innovation. After the first big innovation, Sun rapidly became way too bureaucratic and less innovative. Java was innovative but I think it was designed in vacuum, without considering viable revenue models.

Sun had (has?) high markup on its products which was good so long Intel chips were far behind Sun. It was more focused in meeting the revenue goals without reacting rapidly to market dynamics.

A company like Apple (during Job’s era) innovates continuously to stay ahead. So does Oracle which also does a great job of focusing on its core competency. Sun’s core competency is in Solaris and Sparc. It decided, without strong logical underpinnings, to open source Solaris, thereby drastically reducing its net value.

So what are the legs on which Sun can rise again? I can’t see many. Can you?

The key question to me is the fate of Java with slow but almost sure demise of Sun. I don’t think open source foundations can effectively manage and improve on this great product. And I wouldn’t trust it with IBM or Oracle either. Microsoft is out of question.

The other option is breaking Javasoft from Sun and making it self-sufficient with consultancy and java software services.